_______________________ |E|A|R|T|H| |S|T|A|T|S| ----------------------- [Send the 1-line message GET EARTH STATS ACTIV-L to ] [LISTSERV@UMCVMB.BITNET for a copy of this file. ] [Send GET ACTIV-L ARCHIVE ACTIV-L to above address for a ] [listing with brief descriptions of other files available] ================================================================== CONTENTS: *** From Scientific American's Special Issue, Sept. '89, "Managing Planet Earth" ; sobering stats on ozone, greenhouse effect, pollution; Estimated Lifetimes of some Global Resources; energy efficienty chart. *** "Skin cancer up sharply in young" [Chicago Trib. 12/8/88 p.6] et al; several short excerpts. *** Short article: "UN plea: Curb global warming" *** Short article: "Earth's air `perturbed,' experts day" ================================================================== ============================================================ Gathered from Scientific American's Special Issue, Sept. '89 ============================================================ [From William Clark's opening essay]: "Since the beginning of the 18th century, the planet has lost six million square kilometers of forest -- an area larger than Europe." [And last I heard, the "ozone hole" was larger than Antarctica] "...in the past 300 years agricultural and industrial development has doubled the amount of methane in the atmosphere and increased the concentration of carbon dioxide by 25%. The global flows of major elements such as sulfur and nitrogen that result from human activity are comparable to or greater than the natural flows of these elements. Among the trace metals, many of which are toxic to life, Jerome Nriagu of the Canadian National Water Research INSTITUTE AND Jozef Pcyna of the Norwegian Institute for Air Pollution Research have shown that human emissions of lead, cadmium and zinc exceed the flux from natural sources by factors of 18, 5 and 3, respectively. For several other metals, including arsenic, mercury, nickel and vanadium, the human contribution now is as much as two times that from natural sources..." ####################################################################### Here are some sobering statistics from various articles in the issue. Gas Anthropogenic/ Avg residence 100 yrs current 2030 Total emmisions time in ago Parts/ proj- /yr. (Mill.Tons) atmosphere Parts/B Bill. ected ####################################################################### CO 700/2,000 Months ? N Hemi (same) probably 40-80 S (clean) increasing - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CO(2) 5,500/~5,500 100 years 290,000 350,000 400K-500K - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Methane CH(4) 2,200- 300-400/550 10 years 900 1,700 2,500 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NO(x) 20-30/ Days .001 to ?(clean [.001-50 (both)] Gases 30-50 to industrial) [clean-indust. ] - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NitrsOxide 6/25[=N(2)O] 170 years 285 310 330-350 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sulfur 100-130/ .03 to ? (clean Dioxide 150-200 Days-Weeks to industrial) same same - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Chlorofluorocarbons 60-100 ~3 2.6-6 atoms ~1/1 years 0 (atoms) (chlorine) ####################################################################### Gas Greenhouse Strato. Acid Corr- Decr. D.S.C. Effect OzD(*) Deposition Smog osion Visib (^) (*)Stratospheric Ozone Depletion; (^)Decreased self-cleansing of atmos. ====================================================================== CO + ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CO(2) + +/- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Methane CH4 + +/- +/- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NO(x): Nitric Oxide NO; Nitrogen Dioxide NO(2) +/- + + + - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Nitrous Oxide N(2)O + +/- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Sulfur Dioxide SO(2) - + + + ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Chlorofluorocarbons + + ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Ozone O(3) + + - ####################################################################### "TRACE GASES and the environmental perturbations with which they are associated are listed. Plus signs indicate a contribution to the effect; minus signs indicate amelioration. Sometimes a gas's effect varies, as is indicated by dual signs (+/-). In particular, the effects of carbon dioxide, the NO(x) gases and nitrous oxide on stratospheric ozone depletion depend on altitude. Methane generally ameliorates the effect, except in the ozone hole, and its tendency to diminish the self-cleansing of the atmosphere (by reducing the abundance of hydroxyl) is different in the north and south; methane diminishes self-cleansing in the Southern Hemisphere but has the opposite effect in the Northern Hemisphere. The concentrations of many gases, given in parts per billion (ppb), are expected to be signifi- cantly higher 40 years from now if anthropogenic emissions continue to increase. For gases with lifetimes of years, estimated global averages are listed. The concentrations of the NO(x) gases and sulfur dioxide over highly industrial sites may not rise much in 40 years, but the number of polluted sites can be expected to grow, particularly in the developing nations. Chlorofluorocarbon concentrations are given in terms of chlorine atoms because the molecules generally contains more than one ozone-destroying chlorine atom." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - "At the outset, it cannot be overemphasized that policy for managing planet earth must above all else be adaptive. Our understanding of the science behind global change is incomplete and will remain so into the foreseeable future. Surprises like the stratospheric ozone hole will continue to appear and will demand action WELL IN ADVANCE OF SCIENTIFIC CERTAINTY [emphasis added. More on this later]....the failure of current economic account to track the real environmental costs of human activities [in particular of US-style capitalism --HB] encourages the inefficient use of resources." [no to mention the maiming of our planet. This paragraph is also quoted from intro. essay --HB] ####################################################################### The following two tables are not directly related to pollution, but are nonetheless useful, so I'm including them since they're in front of me... [It would be interesting to have people in the newsgroups GUESS some of these before posting it...] ESTIMATED LIFETIMES OF SOME GLOBAL RESOURCES ============================================ Current consumption rates 2030 Rates Reserves Resources Reserves Resources Aluminum 256 805 124 407 Copper 41 277 4 26 Cobalt 109 429 10 40 Molybdenum 67 256 8 33 Nickel 66 163 7 16 Platinum 225 413 21 39 Group Coal 206 3226 29 457 Petroleum 35 83 3 7 "WORLD STOCKS of some essential raw materials will drop perilously low if less developed countries increase their consumption to match that of the industrialized world. Figures show reserves (quantities that can be profitably extracted with current technology) and resources (total quantities thought to exist). Estimates of years left until deletion are based on current global consumption (left) or on the assumption that in 2030 a population of 10 billion will consume at current U.S. rates (right)" [Of course, it is not likely that the world's population will be consuming at the same level. So that means we'll likely have somewhat more than 29 years of coal and 3 years of petroleum, perhaps. The assumptions that U.S. consumption will not increase during the interim present-2030, and that population will be only 10 billion, are perhaps too rosy. Finally, when looking over some of the "big" numbers, I found it useful to note that Columbus "discovered America" some 500 years ago, Jesus lived some 2,000 years ago, and homo sapiens is supposed to have been around for some 100,000 years.] ====================================================================== An interesting table on efficiencies (Recall this is Fall '89 issue): Car Home Refrigerator Gas Furnace A/C =================================================================== Model Average 18 190 4 210 10 New Model Avg 27 110 3 180 7 Best Model 50 68 2 140 5 Best Prototype 77 11 1 110 3 =================================================================== Car: Miles/Gallon; Home: Thousand Joules/Sq. Meter; Refrigerator: Kilowatt-Hours/day; Gas Furnace: Million Joules/Day; Air Conditioner:Kilowatt-Hours/Day <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><> There's a map about acid rain I can't reproduce except to say that those "grey" regions on the map (New England-Midwest) indicating emissions levels exceeding 1.5 tons of sulfur dioxide per square kilometer back in 1980 constituted almost one-half of the map. Note the typically biased poll question quoted: "`Protecting the environment is so important that requirements and standards cannot be too high, and continuing environmental improvements must be made regardless of cost' --Agree or Disagree?"; in how many other instances, when judging the merits of a general program, do we use language like "regardless or cost" or "cannot be too high"? Regardless of the biased question, "Agree" went up from 45% (Sept 81) to over 80% (June 89) [about 10% "dont' know" in both periods] <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><> Lest you conclude Scientific American is a bunch of do-gooders meaning to save our planet, you should check out the advertisements. A luscious green environment with trees, joggers, blue skies, and cute animals is shown, with a clear-blue Planet Earth inset at the center. "Environmental Excellence -- It's not an impossible dream. We're committed to achieving it. And we're making progress. Our commitment: cleaner air. Purer water..." etc. etc. Boasting "We will ultimately eliminate releases of known and suspect carcinogens to the environment" at the end, the full page color ad is by your friend and mine, Union Carbide. Add to this a full-pager "Oil Spills -- action, not promises" ad by the American Petroleum institute, etc ad nauseum, and you get the picture of who many of the advertisers were. There are some exceptions, e.g. an ad by the World Wildlife Fund. ################################################################## A few notes from articles about ozone depletion: ################################################################## "Skin cancer up sharply in young" [Chicago Trib. 12/8/88 p.6] "..melanoma, a tuype of skin cancer that can be fatal if not treated quickly, is now diagnosed at the rate of one in 128 Americans, an increase of about 1,500 percent compared with 1935.... Five years ago it was unusual to see someone under the age of 40 with skin cancer...now we're commonly seeing people in their 20s with skin cancer. About 25% of the estimated 27,300 American dianosed as having melanoma this year will be 39 or under, he [Dr. Darrell Rigel, asst. clinical prof. of dermatology at NYU Medical School] said. Only a few years ago, melanoma was considered a disease of the aged, Rigel said... For ever dicrease of 1% in the ozone layer, there is a 2% increase in the incidence of skin cancer" From the July/August 1990 issue of In Health: "Percentage increase in melanoma, the most deadly form of skin cancer, since 1980: 96%" Chicago Trib. 3/26/90 "...Malignant melanoma has reached `near epidemic' proportions and part of the increase may be cuased by pollution damange to the Earth's ozone shield...`Ther big increase..we are seeing today is primarily due to what people did to themselves in the sun in teh 1960s, '70s and early '80s, but at the same time we also had more exposure to the sun because of ozone deptletion,' he said"; "since malignant melanoma, the fastest-growing cnacer in teh IUS, is increasing around the world, health experts believe that intensified ultraviolet radiation may be an important factor" ------------------------------------------------------------------ See also "Ozone loss over Antarctic more than expected," Chicago Tribune, 11/16/89 p. 18, and "Study links chest pains, air pollution", 11/18/88, p.16 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ################################################################## Nov '90 addendum: AML-library files warming.UN and hydrogen.perturb in lib/environ/ ################################################################## ============================ UN plea: Curb global warming ============================ GENEVA (AP) -- The top United Nations environment official on Monday urged immediate steps by industrialized countries to curb global warming, saying delay will only worsen a disaster looming over future generations [..and that we face] a danger "potentially more catastrophic than any other threat in human history." A decade of research indicates that only drastic reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" will stop warming of the planet, Tolba told the opening of a UN climate conference. [..] A final meeting of about 80 ministers is expected to draw several heads of government, including Margaret Thatcher of Britain and France's Michel Rocard. The [Bush Administration], still opposed to binding emission cuts, has sent a lower-level delegation. The conference is supposed to launch formal negotiations on an international convention against global warming, to be ready for signing by mid-1992 [..] But Tolba said industrialized nations, which contribute some 75% of all man-made greenhouse gases, must cut emissions even before a convention is in place. [..] A conference report by more than 1,000 scientists from 70 countries outlines the climate upheaval likely if nothing is done: * Global temperatures could rise up to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the next century, the fastest rise in 10,000 years. * Sea levels may rise far enough to flood tens of thousands of miles of shoreline, sending millions of people fleeing inland. [...] [Chicago Tribune, Tuesday, Oct. 30, 1990, page 3] ################################################################## [Chicago Tribune, Friday, October 26, 1990, hidden on the second to last page of the "Section 1A, continued" section, page 31] Cox News Service ==================================== Earth's air `perturbed,' experts day ==================================== Revealing new evidence that the makeup of the Earth's atmosphere is changing, scientists have reported that the amount of hydrogen gas in the air has more than doubled in the last 150 years. [...] After analyzing thousands of air samples collected monthly from the Arctic to the South Pole, researchers at the Oregon Graduate Institute concluded that hydrogen has been increasing at about one-half of one percent a year for the last decade. This implies that since the start of the industrial age 150 years ago, the concentration has increased about 2(1/2) times [two and a half], said Dr. Reinhold Rasmussen, an air chemist. IF Rasmussen and Dr. M.A.K. Khalil are right, hydrogen would join other atmospheric trace gases that are known to be increasing: carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrates. An account of the measurements is being published in the journal Nature. ``When you see all of these perturbations, you can see that we have already upset the `natural global state of things,' '' Rasmussen said. ``This is just another trace gas the data indicates is out of balance..'' Only human activity, primarily combustion, can account for the buildup, he said. [...] ################################################################## Originally appeared as: "EarthStats:Activ-List#12, 6/16/90: Followup to rainforest article..." ################################################################## For more information about ACTIV-L or PeaceNet's brochure, send inquiries to harel@dartmouth.edu ################################################################### # Harel Barzilai for Activists Mailing List (AML) # ################################################################### To join AML, just send the message "SUB ACTIV-L " to the address: LISTSERV@UMCVMB.BITNET; you should then receive a message confirming that your name has been added to the list. Alternate adress: "LISTSERV@UMCVMB.MISSOURI.EDU" List Administrator: Rich Winkel, MATHRICH@UMCVMB.MISSOURI.EDU / MATHRICH%UMCVMB.BITNET